The Issues

Back to The Issues list

Global Population

• Global population was three billion in 1960, six billion in 1999, and is expected to reach nine billion or more by 2050 with the extra growth almost all in the less developed world¹⁴.
• Looming water and oil shortages, however, may seriously affect the ability of some countries to feed themselves, and there may be insufficient food on the world market for them to buy food as global population continues to grow^{15, 16a}.
• Indeed, many scientists warn of a massive die-off from famine unless there is strict and equitable rationing of the world’s remaining reserves of fossil fuels^16b,c,d.
• Some are emphatic that without cheap oil to sustain industrial agriculture, the carrying capacity of the planet may be less than two billion – even as low as half to one billion - and that a universal, non-coercive one-child family policy may be necessary (as in Italy and Spain) until a sustainable, low population is achieved^16e,f,g.
• Should the global population grow by another three billion, up to a billion hectares of natural ecosystems would need to be cleared to grow food, depriving the world of the ecosystem services they provide (absorption of carbon dioxide, purifying water, etc.) and hastening the extinction rate of other species¹⁷.

^References

^{14. UNFPA State of the World Population 2001. "Footprints and Milestones: Population and Environmental Change" p 3.}

^{15. UN Wire Services “UN Warnings of Global Water Crisis” 23 March 2002. http://www.unwire.org}

^{16a. Goodstein, David. “Oil doesn’t grow on trees” March 14, 2002. New York Times.}

^{16b. Wright, Ronald. A Short History of Progress, Text Publishing, 2004.}

^{16c. Stanton, William. The Rapid Growth of Human Populations, Multi-science publishing, 2003.}

^{16d. Diamond, Jared. Collapse, How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive, Penguin, 2004.}

^{16e. Newman, Sheila. Future Settings: Perspective for Sustainable Populations "After Oil" in France and Australia. In The Final Energy Crisis, 2005.}

^{16f. Howe, John. The End of Fossil Energy, McIntire Publishing, 2005.}

^{16g. King, Maurice. Primary Mother Care and Population, 2003.}

^{17. Tilman, D et al (2001). Science 292, 281-284.}