The IssuesPeak Oil
Peak oil means declining and vastly more expensive oil. Peak oil is the worldwide peak of oil production, the year we produce the most oil we ever will. Then we enter a different era in human history — an era of permanently falling oil production and skyrocketing prices. Peak oil is the last oil crisis and the beginning of the end of the oil age. National Geographic (Jun'04, p88) describes the Peak in the following way: “Humanity’s way of life is on a collision course with geology — with the stark fact that the Earth holds a finite supply of oil… The peak will be a watershed moment, marking the change from an increasing supply of cheap oil to a dwindling supply of expensive oil.”
A growing body of respected oil geologists, scientists, politicians and media networks are discussing a high probability that the worldwide production of oil has peaked. How do we really know peak oil is here? Surely we would have heard about it by now? A growing body of mainstream scientists and geologists are now starting to admit that peak oil is here. Celebrity scientists like Canada’s Dr David Suzuki and Australia’s "Dr Karl" are validating peak oil. Chevron have clearly stated "The era of easy oil is over!" Then there is the Swedish Prime Minister's pledge to have Sweden off oil in just 15 years. Sweden obviously takes ASPO (the Association for Peak Oil and Gas) very seriously. Republican Senator Roscoe Bartlett has said in the US Congress... "This is a very interesting chart. This shows the difference between the amount of oil that you are finding and the amount of oil that you are pumping. Notice from 1960 on until about 1980, declining for sure, but every year except for one we found more oil than we pumped. The yellow line up here is drilling. You remember the Reagan administration and all the emphasis on drilling because we knew that we were approaching this flipover point where we were going to be pumping more oil than we found and so there was a rationale that if you just give them a profit motive and you have the right incentives, tax and regulatory incentives and so forth, they will go out and they will dig more wells and they will find more oil. Sure as heck they went out and dug more wells. But did they find any more oil? As a matter of fact, in 1982, more oil was used in looking for oil than the oil they found in 1982. Pretty consistently for every year after 1982, we have used more oil than we found. Today worldwide we are pumping at least six barrels of oil for every barrel that we find." One of the most important reports ever submitted to the American Department of Energy is called the Hirsch report. The team was led by Robert Hirsch and studied the most scalable and economical substitutes for oil. Sydney Peak Oil group emailed Robert Hirsch and asked him to summarize his report. This was his answer: “No one knows with certainty when the world production of conventional oil will peak, but a number of experts think it will happen in the next 5-15 years. Our work illustrates that the oil peaking problem can be mitigated with available technologies, but the time required for implementation is measured on a 15-20 year time line, at best. The character of the oil peaking problem is like none other; without timely mitigation, the impacts will be dire, worldwide, and long-lasting. Prudent risk management dictates serious attention and massive action soon, which is difficult for most people and many decision-makers, who tend to wait until a problem is obvious before taking action. Use the information as you see fit. Bob"
The experts are predicting economic collapse, agricultural failure, and even international geopolitical strife. Some go as far as concluding that these factors, all occuring simultaneously, will produce a systemic collapse of civilization itself! The consequences of peak oil are profound. Directly from the Hirsch report. Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization. It fuels the vast majority of the world’s mechanized transportation equipment – Automobiles, trucks, airplanes, trains, ships, farm equipment, the military, etc. Oil is also the primary feedstock for many of the chemicals that are essential to modern life. This study deals with the upcoming physical shortage of world conventional oil -- an event that has the potential to inflict disruptions and hardships on the economies of every country. The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
The conjunction of peaking global oil production with quickening climate change poses fundamental challenges that no section of opinion has adequately confronted - including the Greens. The energy-intensive lifestyle which is now spreading throughout the world cannot be sustained with nonrenewable and polluting fossil fuels, but it is sheer fantasy to imagine that a human population of between six and eight billion can be supported on a combination of windfarms, solar power and organic agriculture. As Matthew R. Simmons (a veteran oil finance insider who has been an important adviser to the Bush administration) notes, we may be approaching the limits of growth that the Club of Rome identified more than 30 years ago, and we are no better prepared to adjust to them now than we were then.
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