SPA Infosheet

Malthus - Wrong? Never!

January 2000

Thomas Malthus in 1798 warned that populations were liable to grow until their environment could no longer support them. People living in the affluence of the twentieth century sometimes pronounce Malthus wrong. In doing so they overlook not only history but the cause of their own affluence - today 20% of the world population uses huge amounts of fossil fuels to consume 80% of the planet's resources. Most humans do not live well - every day 40,000 children die through malnutrition, dirty water or other environmental stress. The wealthy today live as no humans before them have ever lived and the bonanza for one in five of the earth's people will be short lived if growth continues.

Just before Malthus grew up in the English countryside James Boswell, living in London, was writing his famous Journal. This fashionable young man found economies necessary and spent some time living on bread and tea with a little cheese and an occasional apple. The diet of even the wealthy in London was not assured and that of ordinary people was monotonous and precarious. In 1789 the French Revolution was triggered by famine in one of the most productive areas of the globe, the area around Paris. Shortly after Malthus died nearly a million perished in Ireland when the potato crop failed.

Civilisations have collapsed because the environment on which they depended could no longer support them. In the Middle East ancient civilisations were very "advanced", irrigating fields and supporting a sophisticated society. Unfortunately over some centuries the fields became saline, crops failed, the civilisations collapsed and much of the area is wasteland to this day. Easter Island and Central America have also seen the disappearance of sophisticated societies that destroyed the natural systems that supported them.

When the Maori arrived in New Zealand they found islands full of game and their numbers grew until they exhausted the resources on which they depended. By the time Captain Cook visited in 1770 their circumstances were desperate, each group competing fiercely with neighbours.

Malthus has always been right. All species, including humans, tend to out-breed their means of subsistence. Wealthy humans now have technology which can limit fertility and exploit the resources of the entire planet and thus give the illusion that Malthus was wrong. In the long term the planet can support only few humans at a high standard of living. Fortunately technology provides many methods to control fertility and this may ensure a rosy future.